Valuation explorer
Five illustrative licensing scenarios drawn from public 2025-2026 market sizing and sector royalty comparables. Adjust addressable volume, capture share, royalty rate, duration, and discount rate; see the annual royalty at steady state, the undiscounted total, and the NPV. Every scenario is grounded in a specific family of the portfolio.
These are not offers or forecasts. They're the math you'd do if you were modeling what a partnership, license, or acquisition should price at. Intended as a starting point for the conversation rather than a conclusion.
Scenario
Family 5 · Agentic commerce royalty
Agentic commerce spend routed through rule-set-governed multi-party settlement. Royalty attached at the transaction orchestrator layer, not the rail itself.
Captured annual volume
$12.5B
Addressable volume × market share
Annual royalty at steady state
$18.8M
Captured volume × royalty rate
NPV over 10 years
$115.2M
Discounted at 10.0%
Cumulative present value
over 10 years
Undiscounted total over 10y: $187.5M · NPV @ 10.0%: $115.2M
Reference comparable
Visa / Mastercard rails economics
Card-network take rate is 10-15 bps on settled volume; programmable-settlement rails command premium when the rule-set layer is proprietary.
investor.visa.com ↗All figures are illustrative. Volume assumptions draw from public 2025-2026 market sizing (stablecoin on-chain volume, identity-graph TAM, CDP/marketing-tech spend). Royalty rates and capture shares reflect sector comparables but are not contractual commitments or guarantees. NPV uses level annual cash flows at year-end with the specified discount rate.
How to read this
Each scenario describes a licensable slice of the portfolio and pairs it with a reference comparable from a publicly-known sector — card-network economics for agentic commerce, identity-graph pricing for privacy-preserving identity resolution, CDP rates for trigger-event platforms. The comparable anchors the royalty rate; you set capture share and addressable volume based on the deal you're modeling.
The discount rate drives the NPV. A strategic acquirer with low cost of capital will price against a 5-8% discount rate. A venture-adjacent buyer will price against 15-20%. Moving that single input produces most of the spread between a conservative and aggressive valuation.
The five scenarios are not mutually exclusive. A strategic partner whose business sits across multiple families may be modeling two or three of these in parallel, and the portfolio value is approximately additive across non-overlapping fields of use.